London mayoral election 2012: Astrology favours Boris

I confidently predict that a Gemini shall win the London mayoral election on May 3 this year. The problem is, both leading candidates, Mayor Boris Johnson and challenger Ken Livingstone, are late Geminis - both maverick chatterers with a cunning stunt or two to unleash.

So, which Gemini will get his hands on London's £14bn annual budget? As I write, polls tell us the result is too close to call, though I think YouGov is giving Ken a two point advantage. Oh, did you know London is a Gemini city? Crazy place.

Having examined their birth charts and transits (ie where certain celestial bodies are to be found in real time in their charts on May 3) I have reached the tentative conclusion that Boris will win. 'Tentative' because neither chart is an unambiguous rapture of victory: one is wretched, the other a maelstrom of emotion.

Who'd want to be in my shoes? Election results are notoriously difficult to forecast. Have pity.

Non-astrologers may want to stop here because I now propose to explain how I reached my view. The laity can go drift off for an early cappuccino and a goss.

Ken's chart for May 3
Born in London, June 17 1945, approx 12.05am:

His May 3 chart is a distinctly miserable looking thing. There are numerous negative inconjuncts (such as tr Uranus inconjunct Uranus; tr Mercury inconjunct Jupiter) and a woeful tr Libra Saturn square ascendant which usually indicates blocks and the ending of significant relationships - certainly not an omen of a honeymoon. Tr Mercury, the ruler of Gemini, is inconjunct Jupiter: this suggests a possible miscalculation in thinking and expression (perhaps over finances as tr Mercury is in H2, the house of cash).

One aspect in Ken's favour is a neutral tr Saturn trine Sun: on May 3 uncertainty is swept away and realism reasserts itself. This could apply whether he wins or loses and so is not a decider. Another goodish aspect is tr Moon sextile Midheaven (H10) which normally either denotes a happy impression on the public or the warming embrace of comforting family. Again, not a decider but does say at least he won't disgrace himself.

Ken's Solar Return Chart (2011-12), with Moon opposite (via Mercury conjunction) Sun suggests that public disagreements or misunderstandings are a risk to reputation; and a Sun-Pluto opposition foresees the struggle to regain power with the peril of unbalancing close relationships. He should also be extra cautious about personal security. North Node in H12 opposite Sun is not PR heaven.

Nothing is conclusive in forecasting because the astrologer must interpret complex, sometimes contradictory indications. The overall message of the chart for May 3 is not promising, however. Ken's main comfort is that Boris' 2008 chart was also pretty dire (Saturn square Mars): what may seem like loss is a personal release; what may seem like victory is an unwelcome diversion. A crumb of comfort.

Boris' chart for May 3
Born in New York, June 19 1964 (clock time known but withheld)

His May 3 chart is an odd muddle of trends and moods. In his major favour is tr Sun sextile Midheaven (the public status point in his chart) - usually a sign of promotion, success in career. His Gemini ruler Mercury is helpfully sextile birth Mercury: the right messages are being sent out; judgement is astute. Tr Mercury is also passing through his 10th house (career), beefing up an image of responsibility - not a decider, but useful. Tr Moon square Sun is an excitable aspect: feelings are running high - to be expected. By May 5 his tr Sun is conjunct Jupiter - an indication of expansion and optimism.

What I don't like about his chart is his tr Mars. On May 3 it triggers his mutable T square via a conjunction with Uranus/Pluto opposite Saturn (H11-5), apex Mars: these are volatile if not explosive energies so that conditions could provoke volcanic eruption if Boris is not calm and collected. This complex aspect may describe a situation where someone is champing to make progress but is slowed by bureaucracy or red tape (or defeat!) - the eagerness to get on is somehow restrained.

Conceivably, this is a dampener for Boris fans. But it could simply denote the inevitable tidal frustrations and tensions on election day. On the whole, I view favourable tr Sun sextile Midheaven as the decider.

Boris' Solar Return 2011-12 finds him presenting a sober, more orthodox image with Capricorn ascendant. Sun in H5 adds charm and authenticity to self-expression while Moon in H1 anticipates intensified public exposure: this is part of an Air Grand Trine which is also a plus for articulacy and getting ideas across if he can apply self-discipline (Libra Saturn H8). And North Node in H11 sextile Moon is PR heaven.